The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development has sharply increased its inflation forecasts for Turkey while lowering its growth expectations for both 2026 and 2027.

The OECD now projects headline inflation of 31.5 percent in 2026, up from its June estimate of 28.4 percent and above the latest projections issued by Turkish authorities.

Its inflation forecast for 2027 rose even more substantially, climbing to 24.7 percent from 18.3 percent in the organisation’s previous outlook.

At the same time, the OECD reduced Turkey’s expected economic growth to 2.7 percent for 2026 and 3.6 percent for 2027, marking a third downgrade to this year’s growth outlook.

Turkey’s dependence on imported energy and fertiliser continues to expose households and businesses to international price pressure, while tight financial conditions restrain domestic demand.

Despite the weaker figures, the organisation still expects disinflation to continue into 2027 after aggressive central-bank tightening helped pull annual price growth down from earlier peaks.

The revised outlook underlines the difficult balance facing policymakers: maintaining restrictive policy long enough to slow prices without causing a deeper loss of output and employment.

Source: Reuters, 23 September 2026.

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